Odetunmibi Oluwole A, Adejumo Adebowale O, Anake Timothy A
Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria.
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Physical Sciences, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria.
Open Access Maced J Med Sci. 2019 Jul 13;7(13):2204-2207. doi: 10.3889/oamjms.2019.573. eCollection 2019 Jul 15.
The effect of age and gender on the transmission of any infectious disease can be of great important because the age at which the host contact the disease may be a determinant on the rate at which the disease will spread.
The purpose of this research is to model the significant effect of age and gender on the spread of hepatitis B virus using data collected from Lagos State, Nigeria.
The data that was used for this research is a ten years data covering the period of 2006 to 2015, which was collected from Nigeria Institute of Medical Research (NIMR). A log-linear modelling approach was employed using R programming language software. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method of model selection was used in selecting the best model.
It was discovered from the analysis that both factors (age and gender) have a significant effect on the spread of hepatitis B infection. This means that the age at which an individual is tested positive to hepatitis B virus will affect the spread of the disease. In choosing the best model among the four models that were developed, model AY: GY (age & year: gender and year) was found to be the best model.
Age and gender were found to act as a risk influencer that could have a great effect on the transmission of hepatitis B virus infections in Lagos state, Nigeria.
年龄和性别对任何传染病传播的影响可能非常重要，因为宿主感染疾病的年龄可能是疾病传播速度的一个决定因素。
本研究的目的是利用从尼日利亚拉各斯州收集的数据，对年龄和性别对乙型肝炎病毒传播的显著影响进行建模。
本研究使用的数据是涵盖2006年至2015年的十年数据，从尼日利亚医学研究所（NIMR）收集。采用R编程语言软件采用对数线性建模方法。模型选择采用赤池信息准则（AIC）方法选择最佳模型。
从分析中发现，两个因素（年龄和性别）对乙型肝炎感染的传播都有显著影响。这意味着个体乙型肝炎病毒检测呈阳性的年龄会影响疾病的传播。在开发的四个模型中选择最佳模型时，发现模型AY:GY（年龄和年份：性别和年份）是最佳模型。
发现年龄和性别是风险影响因素，可能对尼日利亚拉各斯州乙型肝炎病毒感染的传播产生重大影响。
