Estimating the immunogenicity of measles-rubella vaccination administered during a mass campaign in Lao People's Democratic Republic using multi-valent seroprevalence data.

Measles and rubella are important causes of morbidity and mortality globally. Despite high coverage reported for measles vaccination, outbreaks continue to occur in some countries. The reasons for these outbreaks are poorly understood. We apply Bayesian methods to multi-valent seroprevalence data for measles and rubella, collected 2 years and 3 months after a mass measles-rubella vaccination campaign in Lao PDR to estimate the immunogenicity and vaccination coverage. When the vaccination coverage was constrained to exceed 95% or 90%, consistent with officially-reported values, the immunogenicity of the measles vaccine component was unexpectedly low (75% (95% CR: 63-82%) and 79% (CR: 70-87%) respectively. The estimated immunogenicity increased after relaxing constraints on the vaccination coverage, with best-fitting values of 83% (95% CR: 73-91%) and 97% (95% CR: 90-100%) for the measles and rubella components respectively, with an estimated coverage of 83% (95% CR: 80-88%). The findings suggest that, if the vaccine coverage was as high as that reported, continuing measles outbreaks in Lao PDR, and potentially elsewhere, may be attributable to suboptimal immunogenicity attained in mass campaigns. Vaccine management in countries with high reported levels of coverage and ongoing measles outbreaks needs to be reviewed if measles elimination targets are to be achieved.