Obersneider Monika, Janssen Jan-Christoph, Wagner Michael
1University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany.
2University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Eur J Popul. 2018 Nov 28;35(4):825-849. doi: 10.1007/s10680-018-9506-0. eCollection 2019 Oct.
The aim of this study is to analyse the connection between relationship stability and attractive alternatives, which is stressed in micro-level theories on union dissolution. The stability of relationships can be influenced by the availability of alternative partners, whereby the probability that a person will meet these alternatives is determined by the distribution of individuals with specific characteristics in the contextual setting the person is embedded in. Research on this macro-micro connection is sparse in Europe. The availability of alternatives on the contextual level is operationalised through varying sex ratios between and within German districts. The estimation of the union dissolution risk as a function of individual and contextual predictors is based on a discrete-time multilevel event-history analysis using data and data from official statistics. The main hypothesis, which asserts that there is a positive connection between unbalanced sex ratios and union dissolution, is not supported. This result calls into question the robustness of previous findings.
本研究的目的是分析关系稳定性与有吸引力的替代对象之间的联系，这一点在关于婚姻解体的微观层面理论中得到了强调。关系的稳定性可能会受到替代伴侣可得性的影响，而一个人遇到这些替代对象的概率则由其所处背景环境中具有特定特征的个体分布所决定。在欧洲，关于这种宏观 - 微观联系的研究很少。背景层面替代对象的可得性通过德国不同地区之间以及地区内部不同的性别比来进行操作化衡量。将婚姻解体风险作为个体和背景预测因素的函数进行估计，是基于一项离散时间多级事件史分析，该分析使用了[具体数据]以及官方统计数据。认为性别比失衡与婚姻解体之间存在正相关的主要假设未得到支持。这一结果对先前研究结果的稳健性提出了质疑。
