Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Jan;20(1):37-59. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30401-3. Epub 2019 Oct 31.
BACKGROUND: Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. FINDINGS: Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1-87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1-74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2-15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6-10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8-8·4). INTERPRETATION: Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
背景:许多国家的 5 岁以下儿童腹泻死亡率都出现了显著下降。本分析采用 2017 年全球疾病、伤害和危险因素研究(GBD 2017)的数据,提供了最新的 5 岁以下儿童腹泻死亡率结果,并利用该研究的相对风险评估,量化了 195 个国家和地区 1990 年至 2017 年期间风险因素、干预措施和更广泛的社会人口发展对死亡率变化的趋势和影响。
方法:GBD 2017 的这项分析有三个主要组成部分。腹泻死亡率通过预测性贝叶斯综合建模工具,利用生命登记数据、人口监测数据和死因推断数据进行建模;风险因素和干预措施的归因是在反事实框架中进行建模的,该框架将暴露于每个风险或干预因素的人群水平的流行率与暴露于该因素时腹泻的相对风险相结合。我们评估了 1990 年至 2017 年期间腹泻死亡率的相对和绝对变化,并利用风险因素暴露和社会人口地位的变化来解释 5 岁以下儿童腹泻死亡率趋势的差异。
发现:2017 年,全球 5 岁以下儿童腹泻死亡人数估计为 533768 人(95%不确定区间 477162-593145),死亡率为每 10 万名儿童 78.4 人(70.1-87.1)。各国之间的腹泻死亡率差异超过 685 人/10 万。全球每 10 万人的腹泻死亡率从 1990 年到 2017 年下降了 69.6%(63.1-74.6)。在本研究中考虑的风险因素中,导致腹泻死亡率下降最大的因素是减少接触不安全卫生设施(下降 13.3%,11.2-15.5)、儿童消瘦(下降 9.9%,9.6-10.2)和低使用口服补液盐(下降 6.9%,4.8-8.4)。
解释:自 1990 年以来,腹泻死亡率已大幅下降,尽管各国之间存在差异。社会人口指标的改善可能解释了其中的一些趋势,但风险因素暴露的变化——特别是不安全卫生设施、儿童生长发育不良和低使用口服补液盐——似乎与腹泻死亡率的相对和绝对下降率有关。虽然每个国家或地区最有效的干预措施可能有所不同,但确定并扩大旨在预防和保护儿童免受腹泻影响的干预措施,可能会进一步避免因腹泻而导致的数千人死亡。
资助:比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会。
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