对一种提议的乳腺癌筛查方案的评估。
Evaluation of a proposed breast cancer screening regimen.
作者信息
Knox E G
机构信息
Department of Social Medicine, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston.
出版信息
BMJ. 1988 Sep 10;297(6649):650-4. doi: 10.1136/bmj.297.6649.650.
The Forrest working group on breast cancer screening recommended routine mammography for women in the United Kingdom at ages 50, 53, 56, 59, 62, and 65. Benefits were costed at about 3000 pounds for each life year recovered, but there was no estimate of the cost of each life saved, and the consequent reduction in mortality from breast cancer in the general population of the United Kingdom was not estimated. The present study addressed both of these issues using an interactive computer modelling process. Long term savings were calculated at 900 deaths a year in England and Wales--that is, about 8% of the total deaths from breast cancer--and 9% of life years currently lost. The cost of each death saved from breast cancer was estimated at 39,000 pounds.
福里斯特乳腺癌筛查工作组建议英国50岁、53岁、56岁、59岁、62岁和65岁的女性进行常规乳房X光检查。每挽回一年生命的收益成本约为3000英镑，但未估计挽救每一条生命的成本，也未估计英国普通人群中乳腺癌死亡率因此而降低的情况。本研究通过交互式计算机建模过程解决了这两个问题。计算得出，英格兰和威尔士每年长期节省的生命为900人死亡——即约占乳腺癌总死亡人数的8%——以及目前损失生命年数的9%。从乳腺癌中挽救每一条生命的成本估计为39000英镑。
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