Sepehrdoust Hamid, Davarikish Razieh, Setarehie Maryam
Department of Economics, Bu-Ali-Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran.
Heliyon. 2019 Dec 18;5(12):e02979. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02979. eCollection 2019 Dec.
Economic growth and development requires greater access to global markets, while developing countries face many challenges in terms of trade liberalization. That is why most of the countries relying on natural income sources have not been able to improve their indicators of economic complexity and high technology utilization. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of trade liberalization on the economic complexity as a strategy adopted by the Middle East developing economies during the period 2002-2017; using the panel vector auto regression model (PVAR). Immediate reaction test results show that, over a period of 10 years, economic complexity increases with positive shock from variables of trade freedom, foreign direct investment and gross fixed capital formation, but in the long run, the effect of imports of intermediate and capital goods is initially increasing and, after a short period, has a positive downward effect. In general, the results of this study recommend that; in order to achieve a proper share of export revenues in economic growth, the Middle East countries need to strengthen the foreign trade economy through trade liberalization and experience the impact of imports of medium and final capital goods, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment in the index of economic complexity.
经济增长与发展需要更多地进入全球市场，而发展中国家在贸易自由化方面面临诸多挑战。这就是为什么大多数依赖自然收入来源的国家未能提升其经济复杂度和高科技利用率指标的原因。本研究的目的是调查贸易自由化对经济复杂度的影响，这是中东发展中经济体在2002年至2017年期间采用的一种战略；使用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）。即时反应测试结果表明，在10年期间，经济复杂度随着贸易自由度、外国直接投资和固定资本形成总额变量的正向冲击而增加，但从长期来看，中间品和资本品进口的影响最初是增加的，经过短时间后，具有正向的下降效应。总体而言，本研究结果建议；为了在经济增长中获得适当的出口收入份额，中东国家需要通过贸易自由化加强对外贸易经济，并体验中间和最终资本品进口、总资本形成以及外国直接投资对经济复杂度指数的影响。
