Gruzieva Tetiana S, Diachuk Mykhailo D, Inshakova Hanna V, Zamkevych Viktoria B
Bogomolets National Medical University, Kyiv, Ukraine
State Institution of Science «Research And Practical Center of Preventive and Clinical Medicine» State Administrative Department, Kyiv, Ukraine
Wiad Lek. 2019 Oct 31;72(10):2033-2039.
The data of the world statistics show that the process of demographic ageing becomes significant in modern conditions, and the number of elderly people annually increases by 3%. Owing to the global tendencies for ageing, the health care and social security systems are facing important challenges to ensure healthy lives and promote the well-being for this segment of population, provide affordable and quality medical care according to needs.
Establishing modern peculiarities and trends of medical and demographic situation in Ukraine in the context of ageing population in order to substantiate medical and preventive measures.
According to the data of the State Service of Statistics of Ukraine of the Ministry of Public Health for 1990-2017 the tendencies of medical and demographic characteristics of the population of Ukraine have been identified. The national medical and demographic indicators have been compared with the indicators of the countries of WHO European Region according to the data of the European Database “Health for everybody”. Using the least squares method, a forecast of the Ukrainian population and its age structure for the period up to 2030 has been made.
A tendency for Ukrainian population decline by 18,1% over the course of 1990-2017, which is caused by, along with other reasons, decrease in population birth rate by 25,4% and increase in mortality by 19,8%, has been identified. A steady tendency for a decline in the proportion of children’s population up to the age 14 years inclusive for the twenty-seven-year period from 21,5% till 15,5%, and for an increase in the proportion of population aged more than 60 years from 18,3 till 22,9% has been detected. The share of people over 65 in the age structure of population has increased from 12,0% till 16,5%. The analysis of regional indicators confirms that there are unfavorable demographic tendencies in the southeastern, northeastern and central provinces, and more favorable tendencies in the provinces of the West Region of the country. The proportion of children’s population up to the age 14 years inclusive was in Ukraine close to the indicator in the countries of European Union and less than the average in WHO European Region (17,8%), the proportion of people over 65 - close to European regional indicator (15,5%) and less than the indicator in the countries of European Union (19,0%). A forecast of the population and its age structure up to 2030 has been made, according to which less than 40 million will live in Ukraine, and the proportion of persons over 65 years will reach 19,1%.
The tendencies for Ukrainian population decline and changes in its age structure towards ageing make it necessary to take measures to prevent negative medical and demographic trends and provide conditions for healthy ageing, to increase the affordability and quality of medical care, including for persons of senior age groups, and improve the work of health care facilities on prophylaxis of diseases.
世界统计数据表明，在现代条件下人口老龄化进程日益显著，老年人数量每年以3%的速度增长。由于全球老龄化趋势，医疗保健和社会保障系统面临着重大挑战，即确保这部分人群健康生活、促进其福祉，并根据需求提供负担得起的优质医疗服务。
在人口老龄化背景下确定乌克兰医疗和人口状况的现代特点及趋势，以便为医疗和预防措施提供依据。
根据乌克兰卫生部国家统计局1990 - 2017年的数据，确定了乌克兰人口医疗和人口特征的趋势。根据欧洲数据库“全民健康”的数据，将乌克兰的国家医疗和人口指标与世界卫生组织欧洲区域国家的指标进行了比较。采用最小二乘法对乌克兰人口及其年龄结构至2030年期间进行了预测。
已确定1990 - 2017年期间乌克兰人口减少了18.1%，这一情况除其他原因外，是由人口出生率下降25.4%和死亡率上升19.8%导致的。已发现一个稳定趋势，即在27年期间，14岁及以下儿童人口比例从21.5%降至15.5%，60岁以上人口比例从18.3%增至22.9%。65岁以上人口在人口年龄结构中的占比从12.0%增至16.5%。对区域指标的分析证实，东南部、东北部和中部省份存在不利的人口趋势，而该国西部地区省份的趋势较为有利。在乌克兰，14岁及以下儿童人口比例接近欧盟国家的指标，低于世界卫生组织欧洲区域平均水平（17.8%），65岁以上人口比例接近欧洲区域指标（15.5%），低于欧盟国家指标（19.0%）。已对至2030年的人口及其年龄结构进行了预测，据此乌克兰人口将不足4000万，65岁以上人口比例将达到19.1%。
乌克兰人口减少及年龄结构向老龄化转变的趋势使得有必要采取措施预防负面的医疗和人口趋势，为健康老龄化创造条件，提高医疗服务的可及性和质量，包括为老年人群体提供服务，并改善医疗机构的疾病预防工作。
