新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）2020 年 1 月向欧洲输入的早期风险评估。

Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020.

机构信息

INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.

Center for Biomedical Modeling, The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States.

出版信息

Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan;25(4). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057.

DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057

PMID:32019667

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7001240/

Abstract

As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.

摘要

截至 2020 年 1 月 27 日，中国境外已确诊 42 例新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）病例。我们估计，通过航空旅行从中国受影响地区输入病例到欧洲的风险。我们考虑到已实施的旅行限制，法国报告了三例病例，德国报告了一例。欧洲的估计风险仍然很高。英国、德国和法国风险最高。从北京和上海输入将导致欧洲的风险更高且更为广泛。