Nishiura Hiroshi, Linton Natalie M, Akhmetzhanov Andrei R
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.
Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.
J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 11;9(2):488. doi: 10.3390/jcm9020488.
Reanalysis of the epidemic curve from the initial cluster of cases with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in December 2019 indicates substantial human-to-human transmission. It is possible that the common exposure history at a seafood market in Wuhan originated from the human-to-human transmission events within the market, and the early, strong emphasis that market exposure indicated animal-to-human transmission was potentially the result of observer bias. To support the hypothesis of zoonotic origin of 2019-nCoV stemming from the Huanan seafood market, the index case should have had exposure history related to the market and the virus should have been identified from animals sold at the market. As these requirements remain unmet, zoonotic spillover at the market must not be overemphasized.
对2019年12月新型冠状病毒（2019 - nCoV）首例病例聚集性疫情曲线的重新分析表明存在大量的人传人现象。武汉某海鲜市场的共同暴露史有可能源自市场内的人传人事件，而早期大力强调市场暴露表明病毒是从动物传播给人的观点，可能是观察偏差所致。为支持2019 - nCoV源于华南海鲜市场的人畜共患病起源假说，首例病例应具有与该市场相关的暴露史，且病毒应从该市场销售的动物中检出。由于这些条件尚未满足，不应过分强调该市场的人畜共患病传播。
