含有 2019-nCoV（武汉）冠状病毒。
Containing 2019-nCoV (Wuhan) coronavirus.
机构信息
William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research, Professor of Public Health, Professor of Engineering, Yale School of Management, 165 Whitney Avenue, New Haven, 06511, CT, USA.
出版信息
Health Care Manag Sci. 2020 Sep;23(3):311-314. doi: 10.1007/s10729-020-09504-6. Epub 2020 Mar 7.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV first appeared in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. While most of the initial cases were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, person-to-person transmission has been verified. Given that a vaccine cannot be developed and deployed for at least a year, preventing further transmission relies upon standard principles of containment, two of which are the isolation of known cases and the quarantine of persons believed at high risk of exposure. This note presents probability models for assessing the effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine within a community during the initial phase of an outbreak with illustrations based on early observations from Wuhan.
摘要
新型冠状病毒 2019-nCoV 于 2019 年 12 月在中国武汉首次出现。虽然最初的大多数病例都与华南海鲜批发市场有关，但已证实存在人际传播。由于疫苗至少需要一年的时间才能开发和部署，因此防止进一步传播依赖于控制的标准原则，其中两个原则是隔离已知病例和隔离被认为有高暴露风险的人。本说明提出了在疫情爆发初期，对社区内病例隔离和检疫效果进行评估的概率模型，并根据武汉的早期观察结果进行了说明。
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