Fant Charles, Boehlert Brent, Strzepek Kenneth, Larsen Peter, White Alisa, Gulati Sahil, Li Yue, Martinich Jeremy
Industrial Economics, Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02140, USA.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
Energy (Oxf). 2020 Mar 15;195. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.116899.
This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies. Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future.
本研究对气候变化对美国输配电基础设施的影响进行了筛选级分析。具体而言，该模型识别了诸如电线杆和变压器等物理基础设施的性能和寿命变化，并从经济角度对这些影响进行了量化。本分析针对美国本土，使用了五个通用环流模型（GCM），在两种温室气体排放情景下，采用三种不同的适应策略，分析了从基准期到本世纪末的损害和成本变化。结果发现，基础设施总成本大幅上升，年度气候变化支出增长高达25%。结果表明，气候影响可能很大，不过本分析仅涵盖了潜在总影响的一部分。与未采取适应措施的情景相比，积极的适应策略到2090年可使气候变化的预期成本降低多达50%。美国本土各地的影响各不相同，东南部和西北部部分地区的影响最大。对该分析进行改进和扩展将有助于为未来的气候适应政策和公用事业层面的规划提供更好的信息。
