Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Feb 10;41(2):145-151. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.003.
An outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China has spread quickly nationwide. Here, we report results of a descriptive, exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed as of February 11, 2020. All COVID-19 cases reported through February 11, 2020 were extracted from China's Infectious Disease Information System. Analyses included: 1) summary of patient characteristics; 2) examination of age distributions and sex ratios; 3) calculation of case fatality and mortality rates; 4) geo-temporal analysis of viral spread; 5) epidemiological curve construction; and 6) subgroup analysis. A total of 72 314 patient records-44 672 (61.8) confirmed cases, 16 186 (22.4) suspected cases, 10567 (14.6) clinical diagnosed cases (Hubei only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2)-contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30-79 years (86.6), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7), and considered mild/mild pneumonia (80.9). A total of 1 023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case-fatality rate of 2.3. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei sometime after December 2019 and by February 11, 2020, 1 386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked in January 23-26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1 716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3). The COVID-19 epidemic has spread very quickly. It only took 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China. With many people returning from a long holiday, China needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic.
中国武汉爆发的2019新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）已迅速蔓延至全国。在此，我们报告截至2020年2月11日所有确诊病例的描述性探索性分析结果。2020年2月11日前报告的所有COVID-19病例均从中国传染病信息系统中提取。分析内容包括：1）患者特征总结；2）年龄分布和性别比检查；3）病死率和死亡率计算；4）病毒传播的地理时间分析；5）流行病学曲线构建；6）亚组分析。共有72314份患者记录——44672例（61.8%）确诊病例、16186例（22.4%）疑似病例、10567例（14.6%）临床诊断病例（仅湖北）和889例无症状病例（1.2%）——为分析提供了数据。在确诊病例中，大多数年龄在30至79岁之间（86.6%），在湖北确诊（74.7%），且被判定为轻症/轻度肺炎（80.9%）。确诊病例中共有1023例死亡，总体病死率为2.3%。COVID-19于2019年12月后的某个时间从湖北向外传播，到2020年2月11日，全国31个省份的1386个县受到影响。症状出现的流行曲线在1月23日至26日达到峰值，然后在2月11日前开始下降。共有1716名医护人员感染，5人死亡（0.3%）。COVID-19疫情传播非常迅速。从湖北蔓延至中国大陆其他地区仅用了30天时间。随着众多人员结束长假返程，中国需要为疫情可能的反弹做好准备。
