Ou Yang, Smith Steven J, West J Jason, Nolte Christopher G, Loughlin Daniel H
Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, United States of America.
Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, US Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC, United States of America.
Environ Res Lett. 2019 Dec 18;14(12):124071. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab59cb.
Future fine particulate matter (PM.) concentrations and resulting health impacts will be largely determined by factors such as energy use, fuel choices, emission controls, state and national policies, and demographcs. In this study, a human-earth system model is used to estimate PM mortality costs (PMMC) due to air pollutant emissions from each US state over the period 2015 to 2050, considering current major air quality and energy regulations. Contributions of various socioeconomic and energy factors to PMMC are quantified using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. National PMMC are estimated to decrease 25% from 2015 to 2050, driven by decreases in energy intensity and PMMC per unit consumption of electric sector coal and transportation liquids. These factors together contribute 68% of the decrease, primarily from technology improvements and air quality regulations. States with greater population and economic growth, but with fewer clean energy resources, are more likely to face significant challenges in reducing future PMMC from their emissions. In contrast, states with larger projected decreases in PMMC have smaller increases in population and per capita GDP, and greater decreases in electric sector coal share and PMMC per unit fuel consumption.
未来的细颗粒物（PM）浓度及其对健康的影响将在很大程度上取决于能源使用、燃料选择、排放控制、州和国家政策以及人口结构等因素。在本研究中，使用了一个人类 - 地球系统模型来估算2015年至2050年期间美国各州因空气污染物排放导致的PM死亡成本（PMMC），同时考虑了当前主要的空气质量和能源法规。使用对数平均迪氏指数对各种社会经济和能源因素对PMMC的贡献进行了量化。预计到2050年，全国PMMC将下降25%，这主要是由于能源强度以及电力部门煤炭和运输液体单位消耗量的PMMC下降所致。这些因素共同促成了68%的降幅，主要源于技术改进和空气质量法规。人口和经济增长较快但清洁能源资源较少的州，在减少未来排放导致的PMMC方面更可能面临重大挑战。相比之下，预计PMMC降幅较大的州，其人口和人均GDP的增幅较小，电力部门煤炭份额和单位燃料消耗量的PMMC降幅更大。
