School of Political Science and Public Administration, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou, 362021, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Jun 1;263:110400. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110400. Epub 2020 Mar 12.
China's successful agriculture development has resulted in public concerned environmental problems. However, continuous and detailed data about Chinese agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP) loads are lacking. To assess and analyze Chinese ANPSP loads from 1978 to 2017, an inventory analysis was performed, and a socioeconomic and spatiotemporal analysis in the scale of provinces was conducted. The results showed that the pollution loads of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) increased by 91.0%, 196.2% and 244.1%, respectively, and their variation underwent a free development stage, reform promotion stage, market regulation stage and policy incentive stage. The results of the pollution source analysis showed that over the past 40 years, the total percent contribution to COD by livestock and poultry breeding (LPB) and rural household waste (RHW) accounted for 83.1%-96.6%, the total percent contribution to TN by mineral fertilizers (MF) and LPB accounted for 72.3%-80.8%, and the total percent contribution to TP by LPB, RHW and MF accounted for 69.1%-88.6%. In addition, Shandong, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Henan were the top producers of ANPSP loads, and their COD, TN, and TP loads accounted for approximately 32%, 30%, and 35% of the national totals, respectively. The discharge intensity of COD, TN and TP decreased by 79.2%, 67.8%, and 62.6%, respectively. The discharge intensity exhibited a phasic feature that aligned with the national economic plan in the temporal scale and was closely related to the agricultural conditions in the spatial scale.
中国农业的成功发展带来了公众关注的环境问题。然而，中国农业面源污染（ANPSP）负荷的连续和详细数据却缺乏。为了评估和分析 1978 年至 2017 年中国农业面源污染负荷，进行了清单分析，并在省级尺度上进行了社会经济和时空分析。结果表明，化学需氧量（COD）、总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）的污染负荷分别增加了 91.0%、196.2%和 244.1%，其变化经历了自由发展阶段、改革推进阶段、市场调节阶段和政策激励阶段。污染源分析结果表明，40 年来，畜禽养殖（LPB）和农村生活垃圾（RHW）对 COD 的总贡献率占 83.1%-96.6%，化肥（MF）和 LPB 对 TN 的总贡献率占 72.3%-80.8%，LPB、RHW 和 MF 对 TP 的总贡献率占 69.1%-88.6%。此外，山东、广东、四川和河南是农业面源污染负荷的主要产生地，其 COD、TN 和 TP 负荷分别约占全国总量的 32%、30%和 35%。COD、TN 和 TP 的排放强度分别下降了 79.2%、67.8%和 62.6%。排放强度在时间尺度上与国家经济计划具有阶段性特征，在空间尺度上与农业条件密切相关。
