Butler Colin D, Corvalan Carlos F, Koren Hillel S
1National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia.
2World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland.
Ecosystems. 2005;8(2):153-162. doi: 10.1007/s10021-004-0076-0. Epub 2005 Feb 22.
This article categorizes four kinds of adverse effects to human health caused by ecosystem change: direct, mediated, modulated, and systems failure. The effects are categorized on their scale, complexity, and lag-time. Some but not all of these can be classified as resulting from reduced ecosystem services. The articles also explores the impacts that different socioeconomic-ecologic scenarios are likely to have on human health and how changes to human health may, in turn, influence the unfolding of four different plausible future scenarios. We provide examples to show that our categorization is a useful taxonomy for understanding the complex relationships between ecosystems and human well-being and for predicting how future ecosystem changes may affect human health.
直接影响、间接影响、调节影响和系统故障。这些影响是根据其规模、复杂性和滞后时间进行分类的。其中一些（但并非全部）可归类为生态系统服务减少所致。本文还探讨了不同社会经济 - 生态情景可能对人类健康产生的影响，以及人类健康的变化如何反过来影响四种不同的合理未来情景的发展。我们提供了一些例子，以表明我们的分类对于理解生态系统与人类福祉之间的复杂关系以及预测未来生态系统变化如何影响人类健康是一种有用的分类方法。
