Division of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Glob Health Action. 2013 Apr 3;6:20816. doi: 10.3402/gha.v6i0.20816.
The observational evidence of the impacts of climate conditions on human health is accumulating. A variety of direct, indirect, and systemically mediated health effects have been identified. Excessive daily heat exposures create direct effects, such as heat stroke (and possibly death), reduce work productivity, and interfere with daily household activities. Extreme weather events, including storms, floods, and droughts, create direct injury risks and follow-on outbreaks of infectious diseases, lack of nutrition, and mental stress. Climate change will increase these direct health effects. Indirect effects include malnutrition and under-nutrition due to failing local agriculture, spread of vector-borne diseases and other infectious diseases, and mental health and other problems caused by forced migration from affected homes and workplaces. Examples of systemically mediated impacts on population health include famine, conflicts, and the consequences of large-scale adverse economic effects due to reduced human and environmental productivity. This article highlights links between climate change and non-communicable health problems, a major concern for global health beyond 2015.
Detailed regional analysis of climate conditions clearly shows increasing temperatures in many parts of the world. Climate modelling indicates that by the year 2100 the global average temperature may have increased by 34°C unless fundamental reductions in current global trends for greenhouse gas emissions are achieved. Given other unforeseeable environmental, social, demographic, and geopolitical changes that may occur in a plus-4-degree world, that scenario may comprise a largely uninhabitable world for millions of people and great social and military tensions.
It is imperative that we identify actions and strategies that are effective in reducing these increasingly likely threats to health and well-being. The fundamental preventive strategy is, of course, climate change mitigation by significantly reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, especially long-acting carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and by increasing the uptake of CO(2) at the earth's surface. This involves urgent shifts in energy production from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, energy conservation in building design and urban planning, and reduced waste of energy for transport, building heating/cooling, and agriculture. It would also involve shifts in agricultural production and food systems to reduce energy and water use particularly in meat production. There is also potential for prevention via mitigation, adaptation, or resilience building actions, but for the large populations in tropical countries, mitigation of climate change is required to achieve health protection solutions that will last.
有关气候条件对人类健康影响的观测证据正在不断积累。已经确定了各种直接、间接和系统介导的健康影响。过度的日常热暴露会产生直接影响，例如中暑（甚至可能死亡）、降低工作效率，并干扰日常家务活动。极端天气事件，包括风暴、洪水和干旱，会造成直接伤害风险，并随后引发传染病、营养缺乏和精神压力爆发。气候变化将增加这些直接的健康影响。间接影响包括当地农业歉收导致的营养不良和营养不足、病媒传播疾病和其他传染病的传播，以及因受灾家园和工作场所被迫迁移而导致的心理健康和其他问题。对人口健康产生系统影响的例子包括饥荒、冲突以及由于人类和环境生产力下降而导致的大规模不利经济影响的后果。本文重点介绍了气候变化与非传染性健康问题之间的联系，这是 2015 年以后全球健康的一个主要关注点。
对气候条件的详细区域分析清楚地表明，世界许多地区的温度都在升高。气候模型表明，除非当前温室气体排放的全球趋势得到根本扭转，否则到 2100 年，全球平均气温可能会上升 34°C。考虑到在一个升温 4°C的世界中可能会发生其他不可预见的环境、社会、人口和地缘政治变化，这种情况可能会使数百万人无法居住，并引发巨大的社会和军事紧张局势。
我们必须确定有效减少这些对健康和福祉日益构成威胁的行动和策略。当然，基本的预防策略是通过大幅减少全球温室气体排放，特别是长效二氧化碳（CO2）的排放，并增加地球表面对 CO2 的吸收，来减缓气候变化。这涉及从化石燃料向可再生能源紧急转变能源生产、在建筑设计和城市规划中节约能源以及减少交通、建筑供暖/制冷和农业领域的能源浪费。这还将涉及到通过减少肉类生产来减少农业生产和粮食系统的能源和用水量，以实现粮食生产的转变。通过缓解、适应或恢复力建设行动进行预防也有潜力，但对于热带国家的大部分人口来说，需要缓解气候变化，以实现持久的健康保护解决方案。
