Flahault Antoine, Zylberman Patrick
EHESP School of Public Health, USA.
History of Health, EHESP School of Public Health, USA.
Public Health Rev. 2010;32:319-340. doi: 10.1007/BF03391605. Epub 2010 May 29.
Influenza epidemics occur regularly and prediction of their conversion to pandemics and their impact is difficult. Coordination of efforts on a global scale to control or reduce the impact is fraught with potential for under and overreaction. In light of the 1956 pandemic and more recently the SARS and H1N1 pandemics, the public health community took steps toward strengthening global surveillance and a coordinated response in keeping with the continuing memory of the tragedy seen in 1918. The scientific, professional, and technical resources of the 21 century are now advanced far beyond those then available. The H1N1 pandemic which commenced in 2009 progressed differently than predicted; its course was difficult to predict with any degree of certainty. Public responses to national immunization programs against the H1N1 virus have been weak. International movement of diseases can lead to creation of new endemic areas and continuous spread such as that which happened with West Nile Fever and Chikungunya. The lessons learned and the public and political responses to each actual or threatened pandemic will serve public health well in dealing with future challenges.
流感疫情定期发生,预测其是否会演变为大流行及其影响非常困难。在全球范围内协调控制或减轻其影响的努力,存在反应不足和过度反应的可能性。鉴于1956年的大流行以及最近的非典和甲型H1N1流感大流行,公共卫生界采取措施加强全球监测,并根据对1918年那场悲剧的持续记忆做出协调反应。21世纪的科学、专业和技术资源现在比当时有了很大进步。始于2009年的甲型H1N1流感大流行的发展与预测不同;其发展过程很难有任何确定性的预测。公众对针对甲型H1N1病毒的国家免疫计划的反应很弱。疾病的国际传播会导致新的地方性流行地区的出现和持续传播,就像西尼罗河热和基孔肯雅热那样。从每次实际发生或受到威胁的大流行中吸取的教训以及公众和政治反应,将有助于公共卫生应对未来的挑战。