Rong Xin Miao, Yang Liu, Chu Hui di, Fan Meng
Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.
National Center for Applied Mathematics (Jilin), Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.
Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Mar 11;17(3):2725-2740. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020149.
The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and other cities of China is a growing global concern. Delay in diagnosis and limited hospital resources lead to a rapid spread of COVID-19. In this study, we investigate the effect of delay in diagnosis on the disease transmission with a new formulated dynamic model. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations reveal that, improving the proportion of timely diagnosis and shortening the waiting time for diagnosis can not eliminate COVID-19 but can effectively decrease the basic reproduction number, significantly reduce the transmission risk, and effectively prevent the endemic of COVID-19, e.g., shorten the peak time and reduce the peak value of new confirmed cases and new infection, decrease the cumulative number of confirmed cases and total infection. More rigorous prevention measures and better treatment of patients are needed to control its further spread, e.g., increasing available hospital beds, shortening the period from symptom onset to isolation of patients, quarantining and isolating the suspected cases as well as all confirmed patients.
由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）引发的新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）在中国武汉及其他城市的爆发，日益引起全球关注。诊断延误和医院资源有限导致COVID-19迅速传播。在本研究中，我们用一个新构建的动态模型来研究诊断延误对疾病传播的影响。敏感性分析和数值模拟表明，提高及时诊断比例并缩短诊断等待时间虽不能消除COVID-19，但能有效降低基本再生数，显著降低传播风险，并有效预防COVID-19的流行，例如缩短新确诊病例和新感染的峰值时间并降低峰值，减少确诊病例总数和总感染数。需要采取更严格的预防措施并更好地治疗患者以控制其进一步传播，例如增加可用病床数量，缩短从症状出现到患者隔离的时间，对疑似病例以及所有确诊患者进行检疫和隔离。
