Liang Youjia, Liu Lijun, Huang Jiejun
School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
Meteorological Service Center of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China.
PLoS One. 2017 Feb 23;12(2):e0172494. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172494. eCollection 2017.
Spatio-temporal integrated assessment of land-use change impacts on carbon storage services is a new and important research field in land science and landscape ecology. The objective of this paper is to use an integrated SD-CLUE-S and InVEST model to simulate and predict land-use changes impacts during 2000-2018 on carbon storage at pixel and regional scales in the Zhangye oasis, Northwest China. The SD-CLUE-S model was used to simulate land-use change, and three land-use scenarios (current trend, moderate protection, and strict protection) were defined in collaboration with oasis socioeconomic development and ecological environment conservation by local government. The InVEST model was then used to simulate land-use change impacts on carbon storage at different scales in the oasis. The results showed that: (1) the effects of built-up land expansion were especially notable, with a rapid decrease in cropland during 2009-2018; (2) the strict protection scenario saved the largest amount of carbon storage for the oasis compared with the current trend and moderate protection scenarios. The scientific value of this study has been to show that the proposed modeling method can be used to reflect different land-use patterns and their effects on ecosystem services at multiple scales in the oasis. Furthermore, this research can be used to help government managers encourage stakeholders to contribute funds and strategies to maintain oasis landscape patterns and ecological processes by implementing local plans for potential conservation projects.
土地利用变化对碳储存服务影响的时空综合评估是土地科学和景观生态学中一个新的重要研究领域。本文的目的是使用SD-CLUE-S和InVEST综合模型，模拟和预测2000-2018年期间中国西北张掖绿洲像素和区域尺度上土地利用变化对碳储存的影响。SD-CLUE-S模型用于模拟土地利用变化，并结合当地政府的绿洲社会经济发展和生态环境保护定义了三种土地利用情景（当前趋势、适度保护和严格保护）。然后使用InVEST模型模拟绿洲不同尺度上土地利用变化对碳储存的影响。结果表明：（1）建设用地扩张的影响尤为显著，2009-2018年期间耕地迅速减少；（2）与当前趋势和适度保护情景相比，严格保护情景为绿洲节省了最多的碳储存量。本研究的科学价值在于表明，所提出的建模方法可用于反映绿洲不同尺度上不同的土地利用模式及其对生态系统服务的影响。此外，本研究可用于帮助政府管理者鼓励利益相关者通过实施潜在保护项目的地方计划，为维护绿洲景观格局和生态过程贡献资金和策略。
