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新型冠状病毒和 COVID-19 的出现:是留还是消亡?

Emergence of Novel Coronavirus and COVID-19: whether to stay or die out?

机构信息

Division of Virology, ICMR-National institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, India.

Division of Virus Research and Diagnostic Laboratory, ICMR-National institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, India.

出版信息

Crit Rev Microbiol. 2020 Mar;46(2):182-193. doi: 10.1080/1040841X.2020.1739001. Epub 2020 Apr 13.

Abstract

The last century has witnessed several assaults from RNA viruses, resulting in millions of death throughout the world. The 21st century appears no longer an exception, with the trend continued with escalated fear of SARS coronavirus in 2002 and further concern of influenza H5N1 in 2003. A novel influenza virus created the first pandemic of the 21st century, the pandemic flu in 2009 preceded with the emergence of another deadly virus, MERS-CoV in 2012. A novel coronavirus "SARS-CoV-2" (and the disease COVID-19) emerged suddenly, causing a rapid outbreak with a moderate case fatality rate. This virus is continuing to cause health care providers grave concern due to the lack of any existing immunity in the human population, indicating their novelty and lack of previous exposure. The big question is whether this novel virus will be establishing itself in an endemic form or will it eventually die out? Endemic viruses during circulation may acquire mutations to infect naïve, as well as individual with pre-existing immunity. Continuous monitoring is strongly advisable, not only to the newly infected individuals, but also to those recovered individuals who were infected by SARS-CoV-2 as re-infection may lead to the selection of escape mutants and subsequent dissemination to the population.

摘要

上个世纪,有数种 RNA 病毒肆虐,导致全世界数百万人死亡。21 世纪似乎也未能幸免,2002 年出现了 SARS 冠状病毒,2003 年又出现了 H5N1 流感病毒,这一趋势令人担忧。一种新型流感病毒引发了 21 世纪的第一次大流行,即 2009 年的大流行性流感,随后又出现了另一种致命病毒,即 2012 年的中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒。一种新型冠状病毒“严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 型”(COVID-19 疾病)突然出现,导致中度病死率的快速爆发。由于人类群体中缺乏任何现有免疫力,这种病毒继续引起医疗保健提供者的严重关注,这表明它具有新颖性和缺乏先前暴露。最大的问题是,这种新型病毒将以地方性形式存在,还是最终会消失?在传播过程中,地方性病毒可能会发生突变,从而感染新的、以及具有预先存在免疫力的个体。强烈建议进行持续监测,不仅要监测新感染的个体,还要监测那些已被 SARS-CoV-2 感染的康复个体,因为再次感染可能导致逃逸突变体的选择,并随后传播给人群。

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