Cró Susana, Martins António Miguel
IGOT, Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée, Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal.
Universidade da Madeira, Portugal.
Tour Manag. 2017 Dec;63:3-9. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2017.05.009. Epub 2017 May 26.
It is recognised that the tourism industry is vulnerable to some form of crises or disaster. However, despite the attention given to the nature and consequences of tourism crises and disasters, there is a gap in the literature regarding the detection of these events. In this article, we estimate both the number and date of structural breaks in international tourism arrival series for 25 countries and Madeira Island using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test. We compare the date of tourism crises and disasters to the dating of these structural breaks. We observe that tourism crises and disasters are largely consistent with the dates of breaks. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the tourism industry related to the correct allocation of negative shocks in international tourism arrival demand to crisis or disaster phenomena.
人们认识到，旅游业容易受到某种形式的危机或灾难影响。然而，尽管对旅游危机和灾难的性质及后果给予了关注，但在文献中关于这些事件的检测仍存在空白。在本文中，我们使用Bai和Perron（1998）的结构突变检验来估计25个国家和马德拉岛国际旅游入境序列中的结构突变数量和日期。我们将旅游危机和灾难的日期与这些结构突变的日期进行比较。我们观察到，旅游危机和灾难在很大程度上与突变日期一致。因此，这种方法使我们能够解决旅游业中与将国际旅游入境需求的负面冲击正确分配给危机或灾难现象相关的空白。
