London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, and University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California (N.P.J.).
University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California (J.A.L.).
Ann Intern Med. 2020 Aug 4;173(3):226-227. doi: 10.7326/M20-1565. Epub 2020 Apr 14.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model for predicting the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has attracted considerable attention, including from the U.S. government. The appearance of certainty of model estimates is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead, but caution is warranted regarding the validity and usefulness of the model projections for policymakers.
卫生计量与评估研究所预测 2019 冠状病毒病大流行进程的模型引起了相当大的关注，包括美国政府在内。当世界迫切想知道未来会发生什么时，模型估计的确定性似乎很有吸引力，但对于决策者来说，该模型预测的有效性和有用性需要谨慎对待。
