Department of Surgery, University of California Irvine, Irvine, California.
Department of Food Hygiene and Consumer Health Protection, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland.
J Med Virol. 2020 Jul;92(7):863-867. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25883. Epub 2020 Apr 28.
With multiple virus epicenters, COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to COVID-19 case development. We analyzed available data on COVID-19 cases of eight majorly affected countries, including China, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain, South Korea, and Japan. Growth rates and doubling time of cases were calculated for the first 6 weeks after the initial cases were declared for each respective country and put into context with implemented policies. Although the growth rate of total confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has decreased, those for Japan have remained constant. For European countries, the growth rate of COVID-19 cases considerably increased during the second time interval. Interestingly, the rates for Germany, Spain, and France are the highest measured in the second interval and even surpass the numbers in Italy. Although the initial data in Asian countries are encouraging with respect to case development at the initial stage, the opposite is true for European countries. Based on our data, disease management in the 2 weeks following the first reported cases is of utmost importance.
随着多个病毒中心的出现，世界卫生组织已宣布 COVID-19 为大流行。因此，许多国家已实施不同的政策来应对这场危机，包括宵禁和封锁。然而，就 COVID-19 病例发展而言，个别政策的效果尚不清楚。我们分析了中国、意大利、伊朗、德国、法国、西班牙、韩国和日本这八个受影响最大的国家的 COVID-19 病例的现有数据。我们计算了每个国家在宣布首例病例后的前 6 周内的病例增长率和倍增时间，并将其与实施的政策联系起来。尽管中国确诊 COVID-19 总病例的增长率有所下降，但日本的增长率却保持不变。对于欧洲国家，COVID-19 病例的增长率在第二个时间间隔内显著增加。有趣的是，德国、西班牙和法国的增长率在第二个时间间隔内是最高的，甚至超过了意大利的数字。尽管亚洲国家在初始阶段的病例发展方面的初始数据令人鼓舞，但欧洲国家的情况则相反。根据我们的数据，在首例报告病例后的两周内进行疾病管理至关重要。
