School of Computer Science, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, College of Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
J Med Virol. 2020 Jul;92(7):868-882. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25885. Epub 2020 Apr 25.
The 2019 novel-coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 181 countries with approximately 1197405 confirmed cases (by 5th April). Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which got affected on a daily basis and evaluating the effectiveness of control policies are critical for our further actions. To date, the statistics of COVID-19 reported cases show that more than 80% of infected are mild cases of disease, around 14% of infected have severe complications, and about 5% are categorized as critical disease victims. Today's report (5th April 2020; daily updates in the prepared website) shows that the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, Italy, and Germany are 308850, 126168, 124632, and 96092, respectively. Calculating the total case fatality rate (CFR) of Italy (4th April 2020), about 13.3% of confirmed cases have passed away. Compared with South Korea's rate of 1.8% (seven times lower than Italy) and China's 4% (69% lower than Italy), the CFR of Italy is too high. Some effective policies that yielded significant changes in the trend of cases were the lockdown policy in China, Italy, and Spain (the effect observed after some days), the shutdown of all nonessential companies in Hubei (the effect observed after 5 days), combined policy in South Korea, and reducing working hours in Iran.
2019 年新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)已在 181 个国家造成影响,确诊病例约为 1197405 例(截至 4 月 5 日)。了解每个受感染国家的感染传播动态,并评估控制政策的有效性,对我们的进一步行动至关重要。迄今为止,COVID-19 报告病例的统计数据表明,超过 80%的感染者为轻症病例,约 14%的感染者出现严重并发症,约 5%的感染者被归类为重症患者。今天的报告(2020 年 4 月 5 日;在准备好的网站上每日更新)显示,美国、西班牙、意大利和德国的 COVID-19 确诊病例分别为 308850、126168、124632 和 96092。计算意大利(2020 年 4 月 4 日)的总病死率(CFR),约 13.3%的确诊病例已经死亡。与韩国的 1.8%(低 7 倍)和中国的 4%(低 69%)相比,意大利的 CFR 过高。一些有效的政策显著改变了病例趋势,包括中国、意大利和西班牙的封锁政策(在几天后观察到效果),湖北省所有非必要公司关闭(在 5 天后观察到效果),韩国的综合政策,以及伊朗减少工作时间。