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新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学。

Epidemiology of COVID-19.

机构信息

Department of Infectious Diseases & Clinical Microbiology, Gülhane Faculty of Medicine, Health Science University, Ankara, Turkey

Department of Infectious Diseases International University of Health and Welfare, Narita Hospital Narita, Japan

出版信息

Turk J Med Sci. 2020 Apr 21;50(SI-1):563-570. doi: 10.3906/sag-2004-172.

Abstract

It seems that coronaviruses take an important place in the 21th century history. Five of seven human coronavirus was isolated in this century. Unfortunately, last three of them entered our life with a fear of outbreak, pandemic or death. Last human coronavirus which emerged world from Wuhan China, SARS CoV-2 and its clinical expression, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) recently taken a significant place in our daily practice. Initial reports showed that, its origin was bats. It transmitted human to human by droplet and contact routes, but some doubt about airborne, fecal or intrauterine transmission also should be removed. Its R0 value is 2.3 but it could be as high as 5.7. Its case fatality rate was 6.3, but it was different in different ages and counties, and it could be over 15%. According to early models total 10–12 weeks is required to control an outbreak in the community. While different countries show different daily case numbers, total number of case, case mortality rates or R0, it seems they show a similar epidemic curve. Every day we learn new data about the current outbreak. Since the outbreak is not over yet, every detail should be evaluated carefully and the updates should be followed closely to monitor the epidemiological properties of COVID-19.

摘要

看来冠状病毒在 21 世纪的历史上占据了重要地位。本世纪已经分离出七种人类冠状病毒中的五种。不幸的是,其中三种以爆发、大流行或死亡的恐惧进入了我们的生活。最后一种从中国武汉出现的人类冠状病毒,SARS-CoV-2 及其临床表现,即最近在我们的日常实践中占据重要地位的冠状病毒病(COVID-19)。最初的报告表明,其起源是蝙蝠。它通过飞沫和接触途径在人与人之间传播,但也应该消除关于空气传播、粪便或宫内传播的一些疑问。其 R0 值为 2.3,但也可能高达 5.7。其病死率为 6.3%,但在不同年龄和国家有所不同,可能超过 15%。根据早期模型,在社区中控制疫情爆发需要 10-12 周的时间。虽然不同国家的日病例数、总病例数、病例死亡率或 R0 不同,但它们似乎呈现出相似的流行曲线。我们每天都在了解有关当前疫情的新数据。由于疫情尚未结束,每个细节都应仔细评估,并密切关注更新,以监测 COVID-19 的流行病学特征。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1d71/7195982/c91346cd8f70/turkjmedsci-50-563-fig001.jpg

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