高传染性和严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 的快速传播。
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.
出版信息
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;26(7):1470-1477. doi: 10.3201/eid2607.200282. Epub 2020 Jun 21.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 是导致当前冠状病毒病大流行的病原体。最初对中国武汉疫情早期动态的估计表明,感染者人数的倍增时间为 6-7 天,基本繁殖数(R)为 2.2-2.7。我们在中国各地收集了广泛的个体病例报告,并估计了关键的流行病学参数,包括潜伏期(4.2 天)。然后,我们设计了 2 种数学建模方法,利用高分辨率的国内旅行和感染数据推断武汉的疫情动态。结果表明,武汉疫情早期的倍增时间为 2.3-3.3 天。假设间隔时间为 6-9 天,我们计算出的中位数 R 值为 5.7(95%CI 3.8-8.9)。我们进一步表明,需要进行主动监测、接触者追踪、隔离和早期强有力的社会隔离措施,以阻止病毒的传播。