预测意大利、伊朗和韩国下个月因新冠疫情导致的死亡率；一项模拟研究。
Predicting the mortality due to Covid-19 by the next month for Italy, Iran and South Korea; a simulation study.
作者信息
Shojaee Sajad, Pourhoseingholi Mohamad Amin, Ashtari Sara, Vahedian-Azimi Amir, Asadzadeh-Aghdaei Hamid, Zali Mohammad Reza
机构信息
Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
出版信息
Gastroenterol Hepatol Bed Bench. 2020 Spring;13(2):177-179.
AIM
To estimate the number of confirmed cases and the rate of death and also to investigate the cause of death in Italy, Iran and South Korea in the next month.
BACKGROUND
Growing number of confirmed and deaths cases from the coronavirus worldwide, particularly in Italy, Iran and South Korea, has resulted concerns about the future of these countries and their deterioration. Also the European region is likely to face more casualties due to the delay in the virus reaching most of its regions and, of course, as the trend continues.
METHODS
We conducted a simulation in both current and ideal situation for the next month to predict the death rate and examine the reason for the difference in Italy, Iran and South Korea individually. If we assume the cultural and political factors and age pyramids distribution are similar across regions, the differences are mainly due either to the heavier health-care burden owing to the larger population or to the medical facilities diversities.
RESULTS
Our results for Italy showed higher death number, but the rate would be more for Iran. South Korea is also expected to have a smaller increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths compared to Iran and Italy by the next month.
CONCLUSION
Given the prevailing conditions around the world and the increasing number of casualties, it is essential that all countries, especially those with fewer days of involvement, shall do their best to avoid major losses and damages.
目的
估计意大利、伊朗和韩国下个月的确诊病例数和死亡率，并调查死亡原因。
背景
全球范围内，尤其是意大利、伊朗和韩国，冠状病毒确诊病例和死亡病例不断增加，引发了对这些国家未来及其恶化情况的担忧。此外，由于病毒在欧洲大部分地区传播延迟，而且这种趋势仍在持续，欧洲地区可能会面临更多伤亡。
方法
我们对下个月的当前情况和理想情况分别进行了模拟，以预测死亡率，并分别研究意大利、伊朗和韩国存在差异的原因。如果我们假设各地区的文化、政治因素以及年龄金字塔分布相似，那么差异主要要么是由于人口较多导致医疗负担较重，要么是由于医疗设施的差异。
结果
我们对意大利的模拟结果显示死亡人数较多，但伊朗的死亡率会更高。预计到下个月，与伊朗和意大利相比，韩国的确诊病例数和死亡人数的增幅也会较小。
结论
鉴于全球当前的形势以及伤亡人数不断增加的情况，所有国家，尤其是那些受影响时间较短的国家，必须尽最大努力避免重大损失和破坏。
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