Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Water Management Research Center, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabili, Iran.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Mar;28(11):13605-13615. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-11499-0. Epub 2020 Nov 14.
In the present paper, province-level variations of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) disease incidence across Iran were investigated. To this end, a geo-database from infected cases, deaths, total population, death-to-population ratio, and infected case-to-death ratio for 31 provinces of Iran and during seven successive periods of February 18-March 19 (P1), March 20-April 8 (P2), April 9-April 28 (P3), April 29-May 20 (P4), May 21-June 20 (P5), June 21-September 21 (P6), and September 22-October 21 (P7) of 2020 was built. Based on the last reports of the population and housing census (2018), Iran is home to 81.8 million people. Nationwide case series of 536,181 and 29,403 infected cases and deaths respectively with COVID-19 were reported to Iran's Minister of Health from February 18 to October 21, 2020. Of the infected cases, 5.48% have died. The spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 were different throughout the 31 study provinces. Firstly, the central, north, and northwest of Iran were the main hosts of this virus. Shortly after, other parts of Iran, most notably the west and southwest regions, experienced a momentous rise in the numeral of infected cases and deaths. In the first study period, Tehran, West Azerbaijan, Mazandaran, Qom, and Gilan had the most infected cases (> 1000). In the second to fourth periods, the number of provinces with higher than 1000 infected cases, respectively, reached 12, 10, and 17. For the last three periods (P5-P7), 31 provinces were assigned higher than 1000 infected cases. Tehran had the most deaths with an increasing trend for all study periods among other provinces. The areas around Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Bushehr, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, South Khorasan, and Ilam had the least death cases. The numbers of infected (death) cases in Iran for the first to seventh periods (P1-P7) respectively were 16,730 (1208), 41,285 (1595), 28,530 (1876), 16,366 (1856), 80,694 (6588), 201,585 (6232), and 128,336 (6953). The location quotient (LQ) index showed that most provinces of Iran have the LQ > 1 indicating a high degree of COVID-19 concentration in most of the province's area in comparison with the nation, especially in the last study period (P7).
在本研究中，调查了伊朗各省新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）疾病发病率的省级差异。为此，构建了一个从 2020 年 2 月 18 日至 3 月 19 日（第 1 期）、3 月 20 日至 4 月 8 日（第 2 期）、4 月 9 日至 4 月 28 日（第 3 期）、4 月 29 日至 5 月 20 日（第 4 期）、5 月 21 日至 6 月 20 日（第 5 期）、6 月 21 日至 9 月 21 日（第 6 期）和 9 月 22 日至 10 月 21 日（第 7 期）共七个连续时期的感染病例、死亡人数、总人口、死亡人口比和感染病例死亡率的地理数据库。根据 2018 年人口和住房普查的最后报告，伊朗有 8180 万人。从 2020 年 2 月 18 日至 10 月 21 日，伊朗卫生部报告了全国 536181 例和 29403 例分别有 COVID-19 感染病例和死亡病例。在感染病例中，有 5.48%的人死亡。COVID-19 的时空模式在 31 个研究省份各不相同。首先，伊朗的中部、北部和西北部是该病毒的主要宿主。不久之后，伊朗的其他地区，尤其是西部和西南部地区，感染病例和死亡人数急剧上升。在第 1 期，德黑兰、东阿塞拜疆、马赞德兰、库姆和吉兰省的感染病例最多（>1000）。在第 2 至第 4 期，分别有 12、10 和 17 个省份的感染病例超过 1000 例。在最后三个时期（第 5 期至第 7 期），31 个省份的感染病例均超过 1000 例。德黑兰的死亡人数最多，其他省份的所有研究期间都呈上升趋势。科吉卢耶赫和博耶尔-阿哈迈德、布什尔、恰哈马哈尔和巴赫蒂亚里、南呼罗珊和伊拉姆地区的死亡病例最少。伊朗在第 1 至第 7 期（P1-P7）的感染（死亡）病例数分别为 16730（1208）、41285（1595）、28530（1876）、16366（1856）、80694（6588）、201585（6232）和 128336（6953）。洛特卡指数（LQ）指数显示，伊朗大多数省份的 LQ>1，这表明与全国相比，伊朗大部分地区的 COVID-19 浓度较高，尤其是在最后一个研究期（第 7 期）。
