Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese, University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China.
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;95:308-310. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044. Epub 2020 Apr 22.
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.
截至 2020 年 3 月 5 日，新型冠状病毒病 2019（COVID-19）在韩国已导致 6088 例确诊病例和 41 例死亡，在意大利已导致 3144 例确诊病例和 107 例死亡。我们使用随机模型对韩国和意大利的传播过程进行了建模，并估计了基本繁殖数 R，在假设 1 月 31 日或 2 月 5 日开始指数增长的情况下，韩国的 R 值为 2.6（95%CI：2.3-2.9）或 3.2（95%CI：2.9-3.5）；在假设 2 月 5 日或 2 月 10 日开始指数增长的情况下，意大利的 R 值为 2.6（95%CI：2.3-2.9）或 3.3（95%CI：3.0-3.6）。
