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COVID-19 的 R 值及其对疫苗接种率的影响:与以往疫情相比。

R of COVID-19 and its impact on vaccination coverage: compared with previous outbreaks.

机构信息

Faculty of Medicine, Misr University for Science and Technology, Cairo, Egypt.

Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt.

出版信息

Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2021 Nov 2;17(11):3850-3854. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2020.1865046. Epub 2021 Oct 6.

Abstract

: Vaccination has been known to reduce morbidity and mortality of infectious diseases since the emergence of the 1st vaccine in the 18th century. That's why global efforts are directed toward finding a vaccine for COVID-19 in order to eliminate its threat.The current pandemic of COVID-19 has changed the world affecting all fields significantly as a result of the preventive measures including locking down, social distancing, obligatory mask wearing, stopping flights, etc. The medical field is clearly the most significantly affected starting from altering most of the research efforts toward the new virus passing through the inadequate number of physicians as well as unavailable intensive care unit (ICU) beds. In order to break the restricted preventive measures, we need to minimize the newly infected cases which can be achieved by reaching adequate herd immunity. Moreover, calculating the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is crucial to estimate the herd immunity threshold (Ic).: In this review, we searched PubMed for studies that mentioned the R0 of COVID_19, SARS, and MERS as well as measles, Zika and dengue virus to calculate the herd immunity threshold and the minimal vaccination coverage.: The value of R0 could vary for the same disease and consequently the herd immunity threshold as well as the vaccination coverage. The R0 of COVID-19 ranged widely through various articles from 1.4 to 6.68. As a result, the herd immunity threshold would range from 28.57% to 85.03%. However, the vaccination coverage depends also on the effectiveness of the vaccine which is still unknown.: The calculations of vaccination coverage include many variables such as the R0 of the disease, Ic that depends on that value as well as sensitivity and specificity of the vaccine itself.

摘要

自 18 世纪出现第一种疫苗以来,人们就已经知道疫苗接种可以降低传染病的发病率和死亡率。这就是为什么全球都在努力寻找 COVID-19 疫苗,以消除其威胁。目前的 COVID-19 大流行已经改变了世界,由于封锁、社交距离、强制戴口罩、停飞等预防措施,所有领域都受到了重大影响。医学界显然是受影响最大的领域,从改变大多数研究工作转向新病毒,到医生人数不足以及没有足够的重症监护室(ICU)床位。为了打破受限的预防措施,我们需要将新感染的病例数降到最低,这可以通过达到足够的群体免疫来实现。此外,计算 COVID-19 的基本繁殖数(R0)对于估计群体免疫阈值(Ic)至关重要。

在这篇综述中,我们在 PubMed 上搜索了提到 COVID-19、SARS 和 MERS 以及麻疹、寨卡病毒和登革热病毒 R0 的研究,以计算群体免疫阈值和最小疫苗接种覆盖率。

同一疾病的 R0 值可能不同,因此群体免疫阈值和疫苗接种覆盖率也可能不同。COVID-19 的 R0 值在各种文章中的范围很广,从 1.4 到 6.68 不等。因此,群体免疫阈值将在 28.57%至 85.03%之间。然而,疫苗接种覆盖率也取决于疫苗的有效性,而这仍然是未知的。

疫苗接种覆盖率的计算包括许多变量,如疾病的 R0 值、取决于该值的 Ic 值以及疫苗本身的敏感性和特异性。

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