Beijing YouAn Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Infect Dis (Lond). 2020 Jul;52(7):498-505. doi: 10.1080/23744235.2020.1759817. Epub 2020 May 6.
To investigate the risk factors related to aggravation and clinical outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. We performed a retrospective study on the risk factors for disease progression of cases with COVID-19. Based on the clinical types, the patients were divided into a progression group and an improvement group. Multivariable logistic regression and ROC curve analysis were performed to explore the risk factors for disease progression. A total of 101 patients were included in this study; diseases progression occurred in 17 patients, 84 patients improved, 6 were transferred to intensive care unit (ICU), and 5 died. The mean time to obtain negative nucleic acid results was 12.5 ± 5.0 days. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that age (OR, 0.104; = .002), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR, 0.093; .001) and lymphocyte count (OR, 3.397; = .022) were risk factors for disease progression. ROC curve analysis revealed that the AUC of age, CRP and lymphocyte count for disease progression were 0.873, 0.911 and 0.817, respectively. Older age increased CRP and decreased lymphocyte count resulted in potential risk factors for COVID-19 progression. This may be helpful in identifying patients whose condition worsens at an early stage.
探讨 2019 冠状病毒病（COVID-19）患者病情加重的相关危险因素和临床转归。方法：对 COVID-19 患者的疾病进展危险因素进行回顾性研究。根据临床类型，将患者分为进展组和改善组。采用多变量逻辑回归和 ROC 曲线分析探讨疾病进展的危险因素。结果：本研究共纳入 101 例患者；17 例患者病情进展，84 例患者好转，6 例转入重症监护病房（ICU），5 例死亡。获得阴性核酸结果的平均时间为 12.5±5.0 天。多变量逻辑分析表明，年龄（OR，0.104； = .002）、C 反应蛋白（CRP）（OR，0.093；.001）和淋巴细胞计数（OR，3.397； = .022）是疾病进展的危险因素。ROC 曲线分析显示，年龄、CRP 和淋巴细胞计数对疾病进展的 AUC 分别为 0.873、0.911 和 0.817。年龄越大，CRP 升高，淋巴细胞计数降低，可能是 COVID-19 进展的潜在危险因素。这可能有助于在早期识别病情恶化的患者。
