Peng Rong, Wu Bei
National Economics Research Center and School of Economics, 47871Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou, China.
5894New York University Rory Meyers College of Nursing, NY, USA.
Res Aging. 2021 Mar-Apr;43(3-4):147-155. doi: 10.1177/0164027520923567. Epub 2020 May 7.
This study examined the impact of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on the family caregiving burden in China. System dynamics (SD) methodology was used to construct an LTC delivery system model that simulates the demand of LTC, living options, and LTC service use for disabled older adults. The model was based on three policy variables including the proportion of payment from LTC insurance, the growth rate of beds in LTC institutions, and the time to adjusting the capacity of community-based care. Results showed that the percentage of older adults with disabilities cared for by family members was projected to increase from 92.6% in 2015 to 97.8% in 2035, assuming no policy changes; under the mixed policy scenario, this percentage would reduce significantly to 63.8% in 2035. These findings illustrate that changes in LTC policy and delivery system have a significant impact on family care.
本研究考察了当前及未来长期护理（LTC）政策对中国家庭护理负担的影响。运用系统动力学（SD）方法构建了一个长期护理服务提供系统模型，该模型模拟了残疾老年人的长期护理需求、生活选择以及长期护理服务使用情况。该模型基于三个政策变量，包括长期护理保险支付比例、长期护理机构床位增长率以及调整社区护理能力的时间。结果显示，假设政策不变，预计由家庭成员照顾的残疾老年人比例将从2015年的92.6%增至2035年的97.8%；在混合政策情景下，这一比例在2035年将大幅降至63.8%。这些研究结果表明，长期护理政策及服务提供系统的变化对家庭护理有重大影响。
