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奥地利 COVID-19 病例的时间进程。

Time Course of COVID-19 Cases in Austria.

机构信息

Department of Environmental Health, Center for Public Health, Medical University Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria.

Karakalpak Medical University, Department of Hygiene, 230100 Nukus, Uzbekistan.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 May 7;17(9):3270. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17093270.

Abstract

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus, which first appeared in China in late 2019, and reached pandemic distribution in early 2020. The first major outbreak in Europe occurred in Northern Italy where it spread to neighboring countries, notably to Austria, where skiing resorts served as a main transmission hub. Soon, the Austrian government introduced strict measures to curb the spread of the virus. Using publicly available data, we assessed the efficiency of the governmental measures. We assumed an average incubation period of one week and an average duration of infectivity of 10 days. One week after the introduction of strict measures, the increase in daily new cases was reversed, and the reproduction number dropped. The crude estimates tended to overestimate the reproduction rate in the early phase. Publicly available data provide a first estimate about the effectiveness of public health measures. However, more data are needed for an unbiased assessment.

摘要

新型冠状病毒肺炎(Corona Virus Disease 2019,COVID-19)是一种由新型冠状病毒引起的传染病,该病毒于 2019 年底在中国首次出现,并于 2020 年初达到大流行分布。欧洲的首例重大疫情发生在意大利北部,病毒迅速传播至周边国家,尤其是滑雪胜地众多的奥地利。随后,奥地利政府出台了严格的措施来遏制病毒的传播。利用公开数据,我们评估了政府措施的效果。我们假设平均潜伏期为一周,平均传染性持续时间为 10 天。在实施严格措施一周后,每日新增病例的增长得到了扭转,繁殖数下降。在早期阶段,粗略估计往往高估了繁殖率。公开数据提供了对公共卫生措施效果的初步估计。然而,还需要更多的数据进行无偏评估。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/27c7/7246438/241c233b70ee/ijerph-17-03270-g001.jpg

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