武汉的 SARS-CoV-2 基本繁殖数即将消亡，那世界其他地区呢？
The basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan is about to die out, how about the rest of the World?
机构信息
Mathematics Unit, School of Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewlêr (UKH), Erbil, Iraq.
Mathematics Department, College of Science, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Erbil, Iraq.
出版信息
Rev Med Virol. 2020 Jul;30(4):e2111. doi: 10.1002/rmv.2111. Epub 2020 May 19.
Abstract
The virologically confirmed cases of a new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the world are rapidly increasing, leading epidemiologists and mathematicians to construct transmission models that aim to predict the future course of the current pandemic. The transmissibility of a virus is measured by the basic reproduction number ( R ), which measures the average number of new cases generated per typical infectious case. This review highlights the articles reporting rigorous estimates and determinants of COVID-19 R for the most affected areas. Moreover, the mean of all estimated R with median and interquartile range is calculated. According to these articles, the basic reproduction number of the virus epicentre Wuhan has now declined below the important threshold value of 1.0 since the disease emerged. Ongoing modelling will inform the transmission rates seen in the new epicentres outside of China, including Italy, Iran and South Korea.
摘要
目前，世界范围内新出现的冠状病毒疾病（COVID-19）的确诊病例数量迅速增加，这促使流行病学家和数学家构建了旨在预测当前大流行未来发展的传播模型。病毒的传染性由基本繁殖数（R）来衡量，它衡量的是每例典型感染病例所产生的新病例的平均数量。这篇综述重点介绍了报告 COVID-19 R 值的最受影响地区的严格估计和决定因素的文章。此外，还计算了所有估算的 R 值的平均值，中位数和四分位距。根据这些文章，自该疾病出现以来，病毒中心武汉的基本繁殖数现已降至 1.0 以下这一重要阈值。正在进行的建模将告知包括意大利，伊朗和韩国在内的中国以外新中心的传播速度。
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