Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Department of Computer Science, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
J Med Virol. 2020 Nov;92(11):2543-2550. doi: 10.1002/jmv.26041. Epub 2020 Jun 9.
The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID-19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta-analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% CI (2.41-3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% CI (4.77-5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% CI (18.48%-73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% CI (1.29%-4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for.
新型冠状病毒病-2019（COVID-19）已被发现是由严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）引起的。然而，对于 COVID-19 的全面认识仍不完整，许多重要特征仍不清楚。本文进行了荟萃分析和敏感性研究，以回答以下问题：基本繁殖数是多少？疾病的平均潜伏期是多久？无症状感染的比例是多少？以及最终的病死率是多少？我们的研究估计基本繁殖数为 3.15，95%置信区间（2.41-3.90），平均潜伏期为 5.08 天，95%置信区间（4.77-5.39）（天），无症状感染率为 46%，95%置信区间（18.48%-73.60%），病死率为 2.72%，95%置信区间（1.29%-4.16%），其中包括无症状感染。
