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泰国生态足迹的决定因素:旅游、贸易开放度和人口密度的影响。

Determinants of the ecological footprint in Thailand: the influences of tourism, trade openness, and population density.

机构信息

School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.

College of Management, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Nov;27(32):40171-40186. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09977-6. Epub 2020 Jul 13.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of economic growth, energy consumption, tourism, trade openness, and population density on the ecological footprints in Thailand over the period from 1974 to 2016. We applied the augmented Dickey-Fuller and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests to check the stationary properties of the data. The ARDL bounding test approach and VECM Granger causality were used to investigate (i) the long-run and short-run effects and (ii) directions of such effects respectively. The long-run results showed that economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness have positive relationships with the ecological footprint, while tourism and population density are negatively associated with the ecological footprint in Thailand. The results of VECM Granger causality confirmed that the bidirectional causality (i) between tourism and population density in the long run and (ii) between trade openness and population density in the short run. Furthermore, the unidirectional causality runs from the ecological footprint, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness to tourism and population density in the long run. The country policy combined with economic growth, energy consumption, tourism, international trade, and population density perspectives need to be revisited towards sustainable development by mitigating the effects of these variables on environmental depletion especially the ecological footprint. Graphical abstract.

摘要

本文考察了 1974 年至 2016 年期间,经济增长、能源消耗、旅游、贸易开放度和人口密度对泰国生态足迹的影响。我们采用增广迪基-富勒(augmented Dickey-Fuller)和 Zivot-Andrews 单位根检验来检验数据的平稳性。采用 ARDL 边界检验方法和 VECM 格兰杰因果检验分别研究了(i)长期和短期效应,以及(ii)这些效应的方向。长期结果表明,经济增长、能源消耗和贸易开放度与泰国的生态足迹呈正相关,而旅游和人口密度与生态足迹呈负相关。VECM 格兰杰因果检验的结果证实,在长期内,旅游和人口密度之间存在双向因果关系,而在短期内,贸易开放度和人口密度之间存在单向因果关系。此外,长期内,生态足迹、经济增长、能源消耗和贸易开放度对旅游和人口密度存在单向因果关系。为了实现可持续发展,需要重新审视国家政策,从经济增长、能源消耗、旅游、国际贸易和人口密度等方面综合考虑,减轻这些变量对环境消耗(尤其是生态足迹)的影响。

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