Ehigiamusoe Kizito Uyi, Lean Hooi Hooi, Mustapha Marina, Ramakrishnan Suresh
TIFIES Research Group and Southampton Malaysia Business School, University of Southampton, Malaysia.
Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800, Gelugor, Penang, Malaysia.
Heliyon. 2023 Oct 5;9(10):e20699. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20699. eCollection 2023 Oct.
This paper examines the causal relationship between industrialization, globalization, information communication technology (ICT) and environmental degradation in Malaysia during 1970-2019. It uses two indicators of environmental degradation (carbon emissions and ecological footprint), three dimensions of globalization (political, social, and economic) and three indicators of ICT (users of internet, mobile cellular, and fixed telephone subscriptions). It utilizes Granger causality technique in frequency domain which differentiates between permanent and temporary causality, Vector Error Correction approach as well as Variance Decompositions. The bound test shows that the variables have cointegration relationship. It reveals joint long-run and short-run causality from industrialization, globalization, and ICT to carbon emissions, albeit the causality to ecological footprint is tenuous. It indicates that industrialization, globalization, and ICT significantly predict carbon emissions at high frequency than at low frequency. A substantial percentage of the forecast error variance in environmental degradation are explained by industrialization, globalization, and ICT. The robustness of the empirical outcomes is confirmed by the alternative proxies of the variables. Our study implies that industrialization, globalization, and ICT are determinants of environmental degradation. Therefore, policies to mitigate environmental problem should prioritize these variables to attain green economy.
本文考察了1970 - 2019年马来西亚工业化、全球化、信息通信技术（ICT）与环境退化之间的因果关系。研究使用了两个环境退化指标（碳排放和生态足迹）、全球化的三个维度（政治、社会和经济）以及ICT的三个指标（互联网用户、移动蜂窝用户和固定电话订阅数）。研究采用频域中的格兰杰因果关系技术，该技术区分了永久性因果关系和暂时性因果关系，同时运用了向量误差修正方法以及方差分解。边界检验表明变量之间存在协整关系。研究揭示了从工业化、全球化和ICT到碳排放存在长期和短期的联合因果关系，尽管对生态足迹的因果关系较为微弱。研究表明，工业化、全球化和ICT在高频时比在低频时能更显著地预测碳排放。环境退化预测误差方差的很大一部分可由工业化、全球化和ICT来解释。变量的替代代理变量证实了实证结果的稳健性。我们的研究表明，工业化、全球化和ICT是环境退化的决定因素。因此，缓解环境问题的政策应优先考虑这些变量，以实现绿色经济。
