School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China;
Center for OPTical IMagery Analysis and Learning, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 28;117(30):17650-17655. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1922345117. Epub 2020 Jul 15.
Collective risks permeate society, triggering social dilemmas in which working toward a common goal is impeded by selfish interests. One such dilemma is mitigating runaway climate change. To study the social aspects of climate-change mitigation, we organized an experimental game and asked volunteer groups of three different sizes to invest toward a common mitigation goal. If investments reached a preset target, volunteers would avoid all consequences and convert their remaining capital into monetary payouts. In the opposite case, however, volunteers would lose all their capital with 50% probability. The dilemma was, therefore, whether to invest one's own capital or wait for others to step in. We find that communicating sentiment and outlook helps to resolve the dilemma by a fundamental shift in investment patterns. Groups in which communication is allowed invest persistently and hardly ever give up, even when their current investment deficits are substantial. The improved investment patterns are robust to group size, although larger groups are harder to coordinate, as evidenced by their overall lower success frequencies. A clustering algorithm reveals three behavioral types and shows that communication reduces the abundance of the free-riding type. Climate-change mitigation, however, is achieved mainly by cooperator and altruist types stepping up and increasing contributions as the failure looms. Meanwhile, contributions from free riders remain flat throughout the game. This reveals that the mechanisms behind avoiding collective risks depend on an interaction between behavioral type, communication, and timing.
集体风险充斥着社会,引发了社会困境,即在追求共同目标的过程中,自私自利会成为阻碍。其中一个困境是缓解失控的气候变化。为了研究气候变化缓解的社会方面,我们组织了一个实验性游戏,要求三个不同规模的志愿者小组为一个共同的缓解目标进行投资。如果投资达到预设目标,志愿者将避免所有后果,并将剩余资本转换为货币支付。然而,在相反的情况下,志愿者有 50%的概率会损失所有资本。因此,问题是是否要投资自己的资本,还是等待其他人介入。我们发现,通过投资模式的根本转变,交流情绪和观点有助于解决困境。允许交流的小组持续投资,几乎从不放弃,即使他们目前的投资不足很大。改进的投资模式对群体规模具有稳健性,尽管较大的群体更难协调,这反映在它们整体较低的成功率上。聚类算法揭示了三种行为类型,并表明沟通减少了搭便车类型的数量。然而,气候变化缓解主要是通过合作和利他主义类型的人挺身而出并增加贡献来实现的,因为失败迫在眉睫。同时,搭便车者的贡献在整个游戏中保持不变。这表明,避免集体风险的机制取决于行为类型、沟通和时间之间的相互作用。