评估美国新冠疫情本地传播的形成及隐匿阶段。
Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.
作者信息
Davis Jessica T, Chinazzi Matteo, Perra Nicola, Mu Kunpeng, Piontti Ana Pastore Y, Ajelli Marco, Dean Natalie E, Gioannini Corrado, Litvinova Maria, Merler Stefano, Rossi Luca, Sun Kaiyuan, Xiong Xinyue, Halloran M Elizabeth, Longini Ira M, Viboud Cécile, Vespignani Alessandro
机构信息
laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
Networks and Urban Systems Centre, University of Greenwich, London, UK.
出版信息
medRxiv. 2020 Aug 28:2020.07.06.20140285. doi: 10.1101/2020.07.06.20140285.
We use a global metapopulation transmission model to study the establishment of sustained and undetected community transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The model is calibrated on international case importations from mainland China and takes into account travel restrictions to and from international destinations. We estimate widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in February, 2020. Modeling results indicate international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the West and East Coast metropolitan areas that could have been seeded as early as late-December, 2019. For most of the continental states the largest contribution of imported infections arrived through domestic travel flows.
我们使用一个全球集合种群传播模型来研究新冠疫情在美国持续且未被发现的社区传播的建立情况。该模型根据从中国大陆输入的国际病例进行校准，并考虑了往返国际目的地的旅行限制。我们估计2020年2月严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）在社区广泛传播。建模结果表明，国际旅行是SARS-CoV-2传入美国东西海岸大都市地区的关键驱动因素，最早可能在2019年12月底就已传入。对于大多数大陆州来说，输入性感染的最大来源是国内旅行流动。
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