Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Science. 2020 Oct 30;370(6516):564-570. doi: 10.1126/science.abc8169. Epub 2020 Sep 10.
Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critical for public health responses and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here we elucidate when, where, and how the earliest sustained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission networks became established in Europe and North America. Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus from taking hold in Germany and the United States. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington state, United States, founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks from becoming established in these regions.
准确了解新兴病毒的全球传播对于公共卫生应对措施、预测和预防未来的疫情爆发至关重要。在这里,我们阐明了最早的持续严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)传播网络在欧洲和北美何时、何地以及如何建立。我们的研究结果表明,早期的快速干预措施成功地阻止了病毒在德国和美国的早期传播。而其他后来从中国传入意大利和美国华盛顿州的病毒,则建立了最早的持续的欧洲和北美的传播网络。我们的分析表明了公共卫生措施在阻止病毒传播方面的有效性,并表明加强检测和接触者追踪可以防止 SARS-CoV-2 在这些地区爆发。