IUAV University of Venice, Dorsoduro 2206, 30123 Venice, Italy.
IUAV University of Venice, Dorsoduro 2206, 30123 Venice, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Nov 20;744:141028. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141028. Epub 2020 Jul 16.
Recently, an article published in the journal Science of the Total Environment and authored by Zhu et al. has claimed the "Association between short-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 infection" (doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138704). This note shows that the stated dependence between the diffusion of the infection and air pollution may be the result of spurious correlation due to the omission of a common factor, namely, population density. To this end, the relationship between demographic, socio-economic, and environmental conditions and the spread of the novel coronavirus in China is analyzed with spatial regression models on variables deflated by population size. The infection rate - as measured by the number of cases per 100 thousand inhabitants - is found to be strongly related to the population density. At the same time, the association with air pollution is detected with a negative sign, which is difficult to interpret.
最近,Zhu 等人在《环境科学与技术》杂志上发表了一篇文章,声称“短期暴露于空气污染与 COVID-19 感染之间的关联”(doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138704)。该注释表明,感染扩散与空气污染之间的所述依赖性可能是由于遗漏了一个共同因素(即人口密度)而导致的虚假相关。为此,利用人口规模标准化的变量,采用空间回归模型分析了人口、社会经济和环境条件与新型冠状病毒在中国传播之间的关系。感染率(以每 10 万居民的病例数衡量)与人口密度密切相关。同时,检测到与空气污染的关联具有负号,这很难解释。