Wei Y Y, Zhao Y, Chen F, Shen H B
School of Public Health/Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Jun 6;54(6):602-607. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200315-00340.
During the epidemics of COVID-19 in domestic China and recently continuing rapid spread worldwide, a bunch of studies fitted the epidemics by transmission dynamics model to nowcast and forecast the trend of epidemics of COVID-19. However, due to little known of the new virus in early stage and much uncertainty in the comprehensive strategies of prevention and control for epidemics, majority of models, not surprisingly, predict in less accuracy, although the dynamics model has its great value in better understanding of transmission. This comment discusses the principle assumptions and limitations of the dynamics model in forecasting the epidemic trend, as well as its great potential role in evaluating the efforts of prevention and control strategies.
在国内新冠疫情期间以及近期在全球持续快速传播的过程中，一系列研究通过传播动力学模型对疫情进行拟合，以对新冠疫情的趋势进行实时预测和预报。然而，由于在早期对这种新病毒了解甚少，且疫情防控综合策略存在诸多不确定性，尽管动力学模型在更好地理解传播方面具有重要价值，但毫不奇怪的是，大多数模型的预测准确性较低。本评论讨论了动力学模型在预测疫情趋势方面的原理假设和局限性，以及其在评估防控策略成效方面的巨大潜在作用。
