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Forecasting of COVID-19: transmission models and beyond.

作者信息

Zhao Yang, Wei Yongyue, Chen Feng

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.

Big Data Center of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.

出版信息

J Thorac Dis. 2020 May;12(5):1762-1765. doi: 10.21037/jtd-20-1692.

DOI:10.21037/jtd-20-1692
PMID:32642080
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7330413/
Abstract
摘要

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本文引用的文献

1
[Principles of dynamics model and its application in forecasting the epidemics and evaluation the efforts of prevention and control interventions].动力学模型原理及其在预测疫情和评估防控干预措施效果中的应用
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Jun 6;54(6):602-607. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200315-00340.
2
Association of Public Health Interventions With the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China.公共卫生干预措施与中国武汉 COVID-19 疫情流行病学的关联。
JAMA. 2020 May 19;323(19):1915-1923. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.6130.
3
Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions.公共卫生干预下中国新冠疫情趋势的改进型SEIR模型及人工智能预测
J Thorac Dis. 2020 Mar;12(3):165-174. doi: 10.21037/jtd.2020.02.64.
4
We are all fighters.我们都是战士。
J Thorac Dis. 2020 Mar;12(3):132-133. doi: 10.21037/jtd.2020.03.01.
5
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).大量未记录的感染使新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）迅速传播。
Science. 2020 May 1;368(6490):489-493. doi: 10.1126/science.abb3221. Epub 2020 Mar 16.
6
Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.COVID-19 的传播和控制的早期动态：一项数学建模研究。
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 May;20(5):553-558. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4. Epub 2020 Mar 11.
7
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.旅行限制对 2019 年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）疫情传播的影响。
Science. 2020 Apr 24;368(6489):395-400. doi: 10.1126/science.aba9757. Epub 2020 Mar 6.
8
[Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 by SEIR(+CAQ) dynamic model].基于SEIR(+CAQ)动态模型拟合与预测新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Apr 10;41(4):470-475. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200216-00106.
9
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.实时预测和预报源自中国武汉的 2019-nCoV 疫情在国内和国际的潜在传播：一项建模研究。
Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):689-697. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. Epub 2020 Jan 31.