Graduate School of Technology Management, Ritsumeikan University, Osaka 567-8570, Japan.
Discovery Research Laboratories, Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd., Kyoto 601-8550, Japan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Aug 27;17(17):6238. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17176238.
In Japan's response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), virus testing was limited to symptomatic patients due to limited capacity, resulting in uncertainty regarding the spread of infection and the appropriateness of countermeasures. System dynamic modelling, comprised of stock flow and infection modelling, was used to describe regional population dynamics and estimate assumed region-specific transmission rates. The estimated regional transmission rates were then mapped against actual patient data throughout the course of the interventions. This modelling, together with simulation studies, demonstrated the effectiveness of inbound traveler quarantine and resident self-isolation policies and practices. A causal loop approach was taken to link societal factors to infection control measures. This causal loop modelling suggested that the only effective measure against COVID-19 transmission in the Japanese context was intervention in the early stages of the outbreak by national and regional governments, and no social self-strengthening dynamics were demonstrated. These findings may contribute to an understanding of how social resilience to future infectious disease threats can be developed.
在日本应对 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的过程中，由于检测能力有限，病毒检测仅限于有症状的患者，这导致对感染传播和对策的适当性存在不确定性。本研究采用包含存量流量和感染建模的系统动力学模型来描述区域人口动态，并估计假设的特定区域传播率。然后，根据整个干预过程中的实际患者数据，将估计的区域传播率映射到实际患者数据上。该模型以及模拟研究表明，入境旅客检疫和居民自我隔离政策和措施是有效的。采用因果关系图方法将社会因素与感染控制措施联系起来。该因果关系模型表明，在日本的情况下，针对 COVID-19 传播的唯一有效措施是国家和地区政府在疫情早期进行干预，没有显示出任何社会自我强化的动态。这些发现可能有助于了解如何增强社会对未来传染病威胁的抵御能力。
