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检查政策对降低公共建筑中疾病患病率的影响:一种系统动力学方法。

The impact of inspection policies on reducing disease prevalence in public buildings: A systems dynamics approach.

作者信息

Nahavandi Nasim, Gorji Mohammad-Ali

机构信息

Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14117-13116, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

Build Environ. 2022 Sep;223:109398. doi: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109398. Epub 2022 Jul 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109398
PMID:35937086
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9338836/
Abstract

The occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic revealed new dimensions of urban resilience to communities. Failure to implement health protocols in public buildings has had a significant impact on the spread of the disease, and inspection has become necessary to enforce the rules. This study presents different inspection policies of public buildings to reduce disease prevalence. It evaluates and compares the implementation of these policies in the long run based on the systems dynamics approach. First, baseline modeling was performed without inspection to analyze the proposed policies, and disease prevalence was investigated. Then various proposed inspection and fines policies, including fixed inspection and fines rate (FIFF), fixed inspection rate with the variable fine rate (FIVF), and variable inspection and fines rate (VIVF), are introduced, and their system dynamics models are presented. The impact of each inspection policy on the violations rate and disease prevalence in public buildings has been investigated using long-term simulation. Based on the results, regulatory agencies can significantly reduce the rate of violations in public buildings and improve urban resilience to the epidemic by adopting proper inspection policies. The results can help city managers to adopt appropriate inspection policies.

摘要

新冠疫情的爆发揭示了城市社区韧性的新维度。公共建筑中未能实施卫生协议对疾病传播产生了重大影响,因此有必要进行检查以执行相关规定。本研究提出了不同的公共建筑检查政策,以降低疾病流行率。基于系统动力学方法,从长远角度评估并比较了这些政策的实施情况。首先,在不进行检查的情况下进行基线建模,以分析所提出的政策,并对疾病流行率进行调查。然后引入了各种提议的检查和罚款政策,包括固定检查和罚款率(FIFF)、固定检查率与可变罚款率(FIVF)以及可变检查和罚款率(VIVF),并给出了它们的系统动力学模型。通过长期模拟研究了每项检查政策对公共建筑违规率和疾病流行率的影响。基于这些结果,监管机构可以通过采用适当的检查政策,显著降低公共建筑中的违规率,提高城市对疫情的韧性。这些结果有助于城市管理者采用合适的检查政策。

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