The Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Nanchang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang, 330038, China.
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
Sci Rep. 2020 Aug 31;10(1):14291. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-70761-0.
Historically, Jiangxi province has had the largest HFRS burden in China. However, thus far, the comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of HFRS is limited in Jiangxi. In this study, seasonal decomposition analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan statistic analyses were performed to detect the spatiotemporal dynamics distribution of HFRS cases from 2005 to 2018 in Jiangxi at the county scale. The epidemic of HFRS showed the characteristic of bi-peak seasonality, the primary peak in winter (November to January) and the second peak in early summer (May to June), and the amplitude and the magnitude of HFRS outbreaks have been increasing. The results of global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the HFRS epidemic exhibited the characteristic of highly spatially heterogeneous, and Anyi, Fengxin, Yifeng, Shanggao, Jing'an and Gao'an county were hot spots areas. A most likely cluster, and two secondary likely clusters were detected in 14-years duration. The higher risk areas of the HFRS outbreak were mainly located in Jiangxi northern hilly state, spreading to Wuyi mountain hilly state as time advanced. This study provided valuable information for local public health authorities to design and implement effective measures for the control and prevention of HFRS.
历史上，江西省是中国 HFRS 负担最重的省份。然而，到目前为止，对江西省 HFRS 的时空分布的综合了解还很有限。本研究采用季节性分解分析、空间自相关分析和时空扫描统计分析方法，以县级为单位，对 2005 年至 2018 年江西省 HFRS 病例的时空动态分布进行了检测。HFRS 的流行呈双峰季节性特征，冬季（11 月至 1 月）为第一个高峰，初夏（5 月至 6 月）为第二个高峰，HFRS 暴发的幅度和强度不断增加。全局和局部空间自相关分析结果表明，HFRS 疫情具有高度空间异质性特征，安义、奉新、宜丰、上高、井岗山和高安市为热点地区。在 14 年的时间里，共检测到一个最可能的聚集区和两个次可能的聚集区。HFRS 暴发的高风险地区主要位于江西北部丘陵地区，随着时间的推移，向武夷山区丘陵地区蔓延。本研究为当地公共卫生部门设计和实施 HFRS 控制和预防措施提供了有价值的信息。
