Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Korean J Radiol. 2021 Feb;22(2):213-224. doi: 10.3348/kjr.2020.0325. Epub 2020 Aug 28.
OBJECTIVE: Clinical outcomes of patients who undergo transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for single small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not consistent, and may differ based on certain imaging findings. This retrospective study was aimed at determining the efficacy of pre-TACE CT or MR imaging findings in predicting survival outcomes in patients with small HCC upon being treated with TACE. Besides, the study proposed to build a risk prediction model for these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Altogether, 750 patients with functionally good hepatic reserve who received TACE as the first-line treatment for single small HCC between 2004 and 2014 were included in the study. These patients were randomly assigned into training (n = 525) and validation (n = 225) sets. RESULTS: According to the results of a multivariable Cox analysis, three pre-TACE imaging findings (tumor margin, tumor location, enhancement pattern) and two clinical factors (age, serum albumin level) were selected and scored to create predictive models for overall, local tumor progression (LTP)-free, and progression-free survival in the training set. The median overall survival time in the validation set were 137.5 months, 76.1 months, and 44.0 months for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively ( < 0.001). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves of the predictive models for overall, LTP-free, and progression-free survival applied to the validation cohort showed acceptable areas under the curve values (0.734, 0.802, and 0.775 for overall survival; 0.738, 0.789, and 0.791 for LTP-free survival; and 0.671, 0.733, and 0.694 for progression-free survival at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively). CONCLUSION: Pre-TACE CT or MR imaging findings could predict survival outcomes in patients with small HCC upon treatment with TACE. Our predictive models including three imaging predictors could be helpful in prognostication, identification, and selection of suitable candidates for TACE in patients with single small HCC.
目的:接受经动脉化疗栓塞(TACE)治疗单个小肝细胞癌(HCC)的患者的临床结果不一致,并且可能根据某些影像学发现而有所不同。本回顾性研究旨在确定 TACE 前 CT 或 MR 成像发现预测接受 TACE 治疗的小 HCC 患者生存结果的功效。此外,该研究提出了一种针对这些患者的风险预测模型。
材料和方法:共纳入 2004 年至 2014 年间接受 TACE 作为一线治疗单个小 HCC 的 750 例肝功能良好的患者。这些患者被随机分配到训练集(n = 525)和验证集(n = 225)。
结果:根据多变量 Cox 分析的结果,选择了三个 TACE 前影像学发现(肿瘤边缘、肿瘤位置、增强模式)和两个临床因素(年龄、血清白蛋白水平)进行评分,以创建用于训练集的总体、局部肿瘤进展(LTP)无进展和无进展生存的预测模型。验证集中低、中、高危组的中位总生存时间分别为 137.5 个月、76.1 个月和 44.0 个月(<0.001)。预测模型用于验证队列的总体、LTP 无进展和无进展生存的时间依赖性接受者操作特征曲线显示出可接受的曲线下面积值(0.734、0.802 和 0.775 用于总体生存;0.738、0.789 和 0.791 用于 LTP 无进展生存;0.671、0.733 和 0.694 用于无进展生存,分别为 3、5 和 10 年)。
结论:TACE 前 CT 或 MR 成像发现可预测接受 TACE 治疗的小 HCC 患者的生存结果。我们的包括三个影像学预测因素的预测模型有助于对接受 TACE 治疗的单个小 HCC 患者进行预后、识别和选择合适的候选者。
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