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新冠疫情时期的加权偏差与通胀：来自瑞士交易数据的证据

Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data.

作者信息

Seiler Pascal

机构信息

ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Leonhardstrasse 21, Zurich, CH-8092 Switzerland.

https://www.pascalseiler.ch.

出版信息

Swiss J Econ Stat. 2020;156(1):13. doi: 10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7. Epub 2020 Sep 16.

DOI:10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7
PMID:32959014
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7493696/
Abstract

Sharp changes in consumer expenditure may bias inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using public data from debit card transactions, I quantify these changes in consumer spending, update CPI basket weights and construct an alternative price index to measure the effect of the COVID-induced weighting bias on the Swiss consumer price index. I find that inflation was higher during the lock-down than suggested by CPI inflation. The annual inflation rate of the COVID price index was -0.4 by April 2020, compared to -1.1 of the equivalent CPI. Persistent "low-touch" consumer behavior can further lead to inflation being underestimated by more than a quarter of a percentage point until the end of 2020.

摘要

在新冠疫情期间，消费者支出的急剧变化可能会使通货膨胀率出现偏差。利用借记卡交易的公开数据，我对消费者支出的这些变化进行了量化，更新了消费价格指数（CPI）篮子权重，并构建了一个替代价格指数，以衡量新冠疫情导致的权重偏差对瑞士消费者价格指数的影响。我发现，在封锁期间通货膨胀率高于消费价格指数通胀所显示的水平。到2020年4月，新冠价格指数的年通货膨胀率为-0.4%，而同期消费价格指数的年通货膨胀率为-1.1%。持续的“低接触”消费行为可能进一步导致通货膨胀率在2020年底前被低估超过0.25个百分点。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/1921a63e5030/41937_2020_57_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/d1de74eef137/41937_2020_57_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/aba6bae2ac58/41937_2020_57_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/f7a987ed12c9/41937_2020_57_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/5145470214fa/41937_2020_57_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/1921a63e5030/41937_2020_57_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/d1de74eef137/41937_2020_57_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/aba6bae2ac58/41937_2020_57_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/f7a987ed12c9/41937_2020_57_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/5145470214fa/41937_2020_57_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5e72/7493696/1921a63e5030/41937_2020_57_Fig5_HTML.jpg

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