Long-term effects of global change on occupancy and flight period of wild bees in Belgium.

Global change affects species by modifying their abundance, spatial distribution, and activity period. The challenge is now to identify the respective drivers of those responses and to understand how those responses combine to affect species assemblages and ecosystem functioning. Here we correlate changes in occupancy and mean flight date of 205 wild bee species in Belgium with temporal changes in temperature trend and interannual variation, agricultural intensification, and urbanization. Over the last 70 years, bee occupancy decreased on average by 33%, most likely because of agricultural intensification, and flight period of bees advanced on average by 4 days, most likely because of interannual temperature changes. Those responses resulted in a synergistic effect because species which increased in occupancy tend to be those that have shifted their phenologies earlier in the season. This leads to an overall advancement and shortening of the pollination season by 9 and 15 days respectively, with lower species richness and abundance compared to historical pollinator assemblages, except at the early start of the season. Our results thus suggest a strong decline in pollination function and services.