School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, 4/F, William M.W. Mong Block, 21 Sassoon Road, Hong Kong.
Public Health Department, Liyuan Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science & Technology, 39 Yanhu Avenue, Wuchang district, Wuhan, China.
Int Health. 2021 Jul 3;13(4):350-357. doi: 10.1093/inthealth/ihaa079.
Since December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected over 50 000 people in Wuhan, China. However, the number of daily infection cases, hospitalization rate, lag time from onset to diagnosis date and their associations with measures introduced to slow down the spread of COVID-19 have not been fully explored.
This study recruited 6872 COVID-19 patients in the Wuchang district, Wuhan. All of the patients had an onset date from 21 December 2019 to 23 February 2020. The overall and weekly hospitalization rate and lag time from onset to diagnosis date were calculated. The number of daily infections was estimated by the back-projection method based on the number of daily onset cases. Their association with major government reactions and measures was analyzed narratively.
The overall hospitalization rate was 45.9% (95% CI 44.7 to 47.1%) and the mean lag time from onset to diagnosis was 11.1±7.4 d. The estimated infection curve was constructed for the period from 14 December 2019 to 23 February 2020. Raising public awareness regarding self-protecting and social distancing, as well as the provision of timely testing and inpatient services, were coincident with the decline in the daily number of infections.
Early public awareness, early identification and early quarantine, supported by appropriate infrastructure, are important elements for containing the spread of COVID-19 in the community.
自 2019 年 12 月以来，冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在中国武汉已影响超过 50000 人。然而，每日感染人数、住院率、从发病到确诊日期的时间滞后及其与为减缓 COVID-19 传播而采取的措施之间的关系尚未得到充分探讨。
本研究招募了来自武汉市武昌区的 6872 例 COVID-19 患者。所有患者的发病日期均在 2019 年 12 月 21 日至 2020 年 2 月 23 日之间。计算了总体和每周的住院率以及从发病到确诊日期的时间滞后。通过回溯法根据每日发病病例数估计每日感染人数。并对其与主要政府反应和措施之间的关系进行了叙述性分析。
总体住院率为 45.9%（95%CI 44.7%至 47.1%），发病到确诊的平均时间滞后为 11.1±7.4d。构建了从 2019 年 12 月 14 日至 2020 年 2 月 23 日期间的感染估计曲线。提高公众对自我保护和社会隔离的认识，以及提供及时的检测和住院服务，与每日感染人数的下降相一致。
早期的公众意识、早期识别和早期隔离，辅以适当的基础设施，是控制 COVID-19 在社区传播的重要因素。
